5% of Russian Army Soldiers Who Took Part in the War Are Dead
Kind of a big deal when you can't conscript to make up the losses
Donetsk Republic reports it has suffered 2780 military deaths (and 11600 wounded) in the war so far. The losses of Lugansk Republic are presumably in the same general range but somewhat smaller because its population and army at the outset of the war were smaller. Thus between 1500 and 2500 deaths.
Russia hasn't reported its death toll since March, but local journalists working for BBC Russian have compiled a list of 5701 confirmed deaths working from reports by regions and obituaries on social media and local papers. This is only a partial number because not all families take out obituaries and many regions do not report on the deaths of their servicemen. he people behind the list estimate it captures between 40% and 60% of the total deaths, which would make that total between 9500 and 14250. Personally I find that convincing. I think that 10,000 is a good estimate of Russian military deaths so far.
I think a good estimate for the combined military deaths of Russia, Donetsk and Lugansk would be 14,000, albeit anything between 9,000 and 20,000 is conceivable.
Donetsk Republic had the prewar population of 2.3 million. For Donetsk to lose 2780 dead (in six months) is the equivalent of the 330-million US losing 400,000 dead.
10,000 deaths spread out among the 145-million population of Russia doesn't seem that high, but the deaths aren't distributed among the entire population.
The vast majority of deaths are sustained by Russia's ground army (300,000-strong), airborne (40,000), spetsnaz (20,000) and naval infantry (12,000). That is under 380,000 men in total. But one-third of these are conscripts who are not sent to Ukraine leaving just 250,000 officers and enlisted men to bear the brunt of Russia's casualties.
10,000 dead and 40,000 wounded (10,000 seriously) out of a force of 250,000 are not low casualties.
This would mean that 1 out of 25 (4%) were killed. However in all likelihood some officers and enlistees have yet to see Ukraine.
If we assume that 80% of the land forces have so far served in Ukraine it would mean that 1 in 20 (5%) of those who did have been killed, and 1 in 5 were injured. 1 in 10 were either killed or seriously wounded.
What are Ukraine's casualties?
The top Ukrainian general recently stated that Ukraine has lost 9000 dead so far. The real number is double or perhaps even triple that.
However, there is one thing to keep in mind. Ukraine has some contract soldiers but the majority are conscripts. Moreover Ukraine is actually using them to fight the war. Both the regular conscripts inducted for national service upon reaching military age, and older men mobilized for the war. This means that Ukrainian toll, whatever it is, falls upon the entire fighting-age male population of the country. That is over 7 million men between 18 and 45.
Whatever Ukraine's casualties — even if they were to be several times greater than Russian — she can always make up for them by mobilizing more. Russia meanwhile can not easily conjure up large numbers of additional officers and professional soldiers.
Russia is trying to spread the blood toll by greater reliance on Wagner mercenaries and highly-paid "volunteers" who are offered contracts as short as 3 months to join the army. However, for the time being, the majority of the fighting is still borne by the men who were already in the military when the war started.
Russia has a nearly four times greater population on paper, but for as long as the political leadership isn't willing to send conscripts to war that doesn't matter. For as long as that is the case it is actually Ukraine that holds the manpower advantage and can far more easily replace its losses. Even with Ukraine losing more men from a smaller population, the format of Russia's war means that Russia will feel the manpower crunch before Ukraine does.
The extent of sacrifices borne by the standing army already and the limits of relief by short-time mercenaries could be why the pace of Russian operations has steadily declined.
Some have speculated that Kremlin plans to annex Donetsk, Lugansk, and possibly Kherson in the near future to be able to send conscripts there (since they would not be leaving "Russian soil"), but if so the slow progress in Donetsk has frustrated and delayed those plans.
