Has Trump Got Any Clue What War Resolution Would Actually Take?

It's easy to want, it's paying the price to have it that's hard

Witkoff took the unconditional cease-fire proposal to Moscow and received a 3-layered “agreement sandwich”:

First layer: What a splendid thought! Of course, we support the idea of a ceasefire!

Second layer: Here are all the additional requirements for a cease-fire, the reasons it will never work, and why we would actually never agree to something so foolish. (“We also want guarantees that during the 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine will not conduct mobilization, will not train soldiers, and will not receive weapons.”)

Third layer: We want to thank President Trump for his interest and encourage him to keep forwarding us his colorful suggestions!

Was it because of the kid gloves used or something else, but the rejection did not upset Trump. That’s interesting seeing it was a proposal crafted to be rejected.

UK, France and Ukraine had championed proposing a ridiculous cease-fire in the air and sea, which Rubio and Waltz modified into a cease-fire in the air, sea, and land which looks better optically but isn’t any less unfavorable to Russia.

The proposal was downright insulting seeing the US was proposing the one thing Putin had been adamant for the longest time is a non-starter for Russia. Understandable since the fighting it imposes on Kiev and Ukraine is literally the only leverage it has in this.

Putin giving an exhaustive speech outlining peace conditions on visit to Ministry of Foreign Affairs, June 14, 2024. When Scholz called in December to inquire about terms he was referred to this presentation.

Also, the optics of fully restoring intelligence and material participation in the war in the very same breath as asking Russia to limit its own war to non-combat activities are mightily odd. ‘Here Russia, we just restored the supply of shells to the Ukrainians who will ultimately fire them at your troops, would you also not mind shooting at them for 30-days so we can jointly make them stronger?’

Nonetheless, at least for now, Trump and Putin both have remained diplomatic. Trump is even publicly subscribing to Putin’s fictions that there are “thousands” of Ukrainian soldiers presently encircled in Kursk. (They got out in time, albeit at the cost of leaving heavy equipment behind.)

I also see a Mike Waltz that has been put on a leash. The way he talks is different than before January 20 when he was demanding Ukraine send boys 18-24 into the grinder. No doubt the uber hawk is merely bidding his time.

For what it’s worth I think Trump is genuine in wanting to achieve peace, but I also think that’s probably irrelevant. I also genuinely want to own a tropical island, but the more pertinent question is am I willing to pay the price for it, and do I even have that kind of capital to spend?

The question is does Trump want peace at the price it is actually available?

There are only two ways. One way: beef up US involvement to the point Russia can no longer move an inch forward, the war becomes a dead stalemate, and Moscow is forced to give up on its war goals. This option is expensive, might fail anyway, and risks Moscow escalating its war effort to a total mobilization instead. But it is there.

The other way is: offer the Kremlin a genuinely good deal. Concede to Russia not only the terms it has already earned, but also the terms it might be able enforce in another year, or two, or three, of continued fighting.

The problem for Trump is that Russia wants things from this war it is not yet able to enforce, but at the same time believes is crawling closer to with each day it can continue to sustain the war. Indeed the US now showing signs of war fatigue and looking for ways to lower its financial burden is a logical argument for Moscow to keep the war going.

There is very little in what Trump has said so far to make me think he understands what Russia’s ask would be or that he would be willing to meet it. Having failed at the SMO regime-change operation, Moscow in Istanbul sought “demilitarization” — heavy restrictions on the Ukrainian military that would force Kiev into a docile, cooperative stance regardless of who ruled in Kiev. This remains Russia’s central goal yet these are demands Trump has yet to even acknowledge.

Western elites are able to live with Ukraine in Russia’s orbit, but they very much want Moscow to earn it. To prove it can retake it, and to extract a price in thousands of more lives if it can. That means that even if Trump wanted to skip steps to get to the inevitable out of humanitarian inclinations he would have to spend copious amounts of political capital to do so, which he historically hasn’t been willing to do.