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Frantic's avatar

The Ukrainians can just ignore the move. The reason is, if Belarus decides to exploit the defenseless border and invade, this could become the bait Poland (and Nato as consequence) was waiting for to intervene in the war. So probably Belarus won't do anything at all.

Or, the AFU could tie down to the minimal amount of troops around Kiev to delay the invading enemy, and in case promptly reinforce them only if the invasion happens for real, and in the event Poland and Nato don't flinch.

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John Duckitt's avatar

Great analysis! One might also mention the stupidity of starting at end of Feb with the spring thaw and forces stuck on road where they would be easy targets. It was just crazy.

I doubt the Ukrainians will divert any forces over this; NATO aren’t stupid and will realize its not a significant threat. Of course it could be if the Russian troops took some lessons from the Ukrainians' offenses and once the ground hardened sent quick armored fast moving mobile columns with around 2000 men each into northern Ukraine at different weakly defended locations to hit specific targets and then withdraw before trouble arrived. A number of such attacks could cause a lot of trouble for the Ukies and mean they would actually have to send significant forces to the north. The Ukies could retaliate by invading Belarus but I doubt they would do that as it would open a big new front for them, with not much prospect of gain for them from it. But the Russians won’t do it – they seem to have the mentality of Grant (batter away at heavily fortified positions) rather than Sherman (a master of using maneuver).

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