Nord Stream Explosion Removes the Chance of Separate German-Russian Peace

Russian ability to restore gas to Germany alone lies in tatters

By supplying German industries with gas Russia held a tiny amount of leverage over Berlin since it could theoretically switch off the valve. It was a tiny amount of leverage since nobody had ever witnessed Russia actually do such a thing despite decades of financial, economic, diplomatic, political, propaganda, and moral war against her by Berlin and its Washington overlord.

When a month ago Russia actually went ahead and switched off Nord Stream gas it boosted its leverage. By carrying out the threat it demonstrated the credibility of said threat, while still retaining the ability to restore supplies. Its leverage proposition was “We can restore your gas the moment we reach a modicum of peace.”

By destroying Nord Stream the “mystery” explosions have removed Russian ability to make that offer, and have removed Russian leverage with Germany.

The explosion also removes popular pressure on Berlin from below. If there is no Nord Stream then there also can not be protest to open Nord Stream by freezing proles.

The explosion also removes a piece of infrastructure that the Imperial Capital has been obsessed with for years. Obsessions that led it to enact sanctions against entities of its own “ally” (vassal). Obsession that was out of all proportion to Nord Stream’s actual significance or prospects of German-Russian peace.

That is to say, I believe the chances of German-Russian rapprochement were always zero. But that did not stop Washington from traditionally hugely overreacting to the possibility and zeroing in on Nord Stream as the potential catalyst. Its final destruction will have caused a deluge of satisfaction and merriment in DC. (Never underestimate the drive of DC apparatchiks to create feel-good moments for themselves.)

And because the pipeline was inactive anyway the costs associated with blowing it up are minimal. Blow up an active pipe and you risk turning a vassal against you. But having succeeded in making the pipe into an object of shame that Berlin must apologize for ever having built, delivering the explosive coup de grace carries little risk.

ABC News @ABC

Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?" Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." abcn.ws/3B5SScx

Department of State @StateDept

.@UnderSecStateP Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Radek Sikorski MEP @radeksikorski

Thank you, USA.

Radek Sikorski MEP @radeksikorski

BTW, there's no shortage of pipeline capacity for taking gas from Russia to Western Europe, including Germany. Nordstream's only logic was for Putin to be able to blackmail or wage war on Eastern Europe with impunity.

Radek Sikorski MEP @radeksikorski

All Ukrainian and Baltic sea states have opposed Nordstream's construction for 20 years. Now $20 billion of scrap metal lies at the bottom of the sea, another cost to Russia of its criminal decision to invade Ukraine. Someone, @mfa_russia, did a special maintenance operation.

Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 @JulianRoepcke

It is frightening how people are laughing at Germany, after a terrorist attack hit critical infrastructure, supplying millions of German households with heating for the upcoming winter. So far, we knew who attacked us by sabotaging Nord Stream. Now we don’t know for sure anymore.