This Is Now Trump's War

Goodbye Trump Process, hello East Ukraine

Reuters reports Trump is set to transfer war materiel valued at $0.3bn to Kiev using the "Presidential Drawdown Authority" for the first time. Since January 20, DC has been realizing transfers (under various programs and schemes) previously set up under Biden, but this will be the first time Trump will have gone beyond them.

In this way, Trump takes ownership of the war, which becomes his. He now no longer merely heads the power at war with Moscow, he too is at war with Russia.

Trump also made it clear that going forth, the US military industrial capacity lies at Ukraine's disposal — provided that European states under US influence bear the financial cost.

Where previously the Pentagon would order new weapons for Kiev from US manufacturers ($25bn in orders to date) following Ukrainian recommendations and requests, the intermediary and the party footing the bill will now be European NATO governments. Thus for the war itself nothing changes. What this represents is rather the rearranging of the relationship inside NATO between the US and its dependencies — to the flow of US war materiel to Kiev, a flow of financing from small European powers to the US military-industrial complex is added. Thus preserving Pentagon's monies for Israel and the Pacific.

Additional Russia sanctions can't be far behind either.

These novelties underscore that Trump has rid himself of the ridiculous delusion that the bargain he was offering to Moscow had any chance of being accepted. For the longest time — literally since the first month of the war — the Kremlin had been crystal-clear that so-called "demilitarization" is the central goal of the campaign. Trump never intended to concede this, but nonetheless deluded himself that Putin might accept it anyway. Why?? To the Russians, this was an invitation to come out of an undertaking that has consumed hundreds of thousands of their lives, embracing failure and defeat, and to do so voluntarily, without having yet exhausted themselves or been beaten. Who would do that??

The entire six-month Trump Process has been a surreal demonstration of one man's persistent ignorance and narcissism. It seems it took Trump until April to even realize Kiev's military denudement was the key Russian objective, and then months more to accept that without it, they wouldn't just voluntarily give up their pursuit of it.

If Trump is now rid of his delusion, then what about Putin? Did the Kremlin keep the Trump Process alive for secondary, tactical benefits: to shake Ukrainian morale, try to deepen Trump's dislike of Zelensky, postpone any US escalation, and boost recruitment at home? Or did some part of Putin actually hope the new American Emperor might prove a Santa Claus and simply gift him the victory he hasn't been able to achieve on the battlefield?

And now that Trump has entered the war, will Russia likewise escalate its own war effort and preempt any surprises?

In the wake of 9-11 Bush declared the "Global War on Terrorism", but also advised Americans to showcase their patriotism by shopping more. Russia doesn't have quite the same consumer orientation in ostensible "wartime", but it is the case that the great majority of production still serves to fulfill civilian needs, rather than the war effort. Thus, boosting the effort Russia exerts in Ukraine is feasible, but given that labor and capital are finite, it would have to be paid for by an immediate cut in living standards for civilians.

In 2020, the Russian government wasted no time in enacting a lockdown regime — the economy and living conditions be damned — ostensibly to save the lives of the vulnerable elderly (though the result was their mass dying off as their access to health care was curtailed). Now that younger Russians are dying, in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, the government is, however, much more reluctant to harm normalcy and the civilian portion of the economy for their benefit.